Modelling representation errors of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios at a regional scale

Inverse modelling of carbon sources and sinks requires an accurate quality estimate of the modelling framework to obtain a realistic estimate of the inferred fluxes and their uncertainties. So-called "representation errors" result from our inability to correctly represent point observations with simulated average values of model grid cells. They may add substantial uncertainty to the interpretation of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio data. We simulated detailed variations in the CO2 mixing ratios with a high resolution (2 km) mesoscale model (RAMS) to estimate the representation errors introduced at larger model grid sizes of 10 100 km. We found that meteorology is the main driver of representation errors in our study causing spatial and temporal variations in the error estimate. Within the nocturnal boundary layer, the representation errors are relatively large and mainly caused by unresolved topography at lower model resolutions. During the day, convective structures, mesoscale circulations, and surface CO2 flux variability were found to be the main sources of representation errors. Interpreting observations near a mesoscale circulation as representative for air with the correct footprint relative to the front can reduce the representation error substantially. The remaining representation error is 0.5 1.5 ppm at 20 100 km resolution

Deer reduce habitat quality for a woodland songbird: evidence from settlement patterns, demographic parameters, and body condition.

Understanding avian responses to ungulate-induced habitat modification is important because deer populations are increasing across much of temperate Europe and North America. Our experimental study examined whether habitat quality for Blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) in young woodland in eastern England was affected by deer, by comparing Blackcap behavior, abundance, and condition between paired plots (half of each pair protected from deer). The vegetation in each pair of plots was the same age. The Blackcap is an ideal model species for testing effects of deer on avian habitat quality because it is dependent on dense understory vegetation and is abundant throughout much of Europe. We compared timing of settlement, abundance, age structure (second-year vs. after-second-year), and phenotypic quality (measured as a body condition index, body mass divided by tarsus length) between experimental and control plots. We used point counts to examine Blackcap distribution, and standardized mist netting to collect demographic and biometric data. Incidence of singing Blackcaps was higher in nonbrowsed than in browsed plots, and singing males were recorded in nonbrowsed plots earlier in the season, indicating earlier and preferential territory establishment. Most Blackcaps, both males and females, were captured in vegetation prior to canopy closure (2–4 years of regrowth). Body condition was superior for male Blackcaps captured in nonbrowsed plots; for second-year males this was most marked in vegetation prior to canopy closure. We conclude that deer browsing in young woodland can alter habitat quality for understory-dependent species, with potential consequences for individual fitness and population productivity beyond the more obvious effects on population density

Contribution of water-limited ecoregions to their own supply of rainfall

The occurrence of wet and dry growing seasons in water-limited regions remains poorly understood, partly due to the complex role that these regions play in the genesis of their own rainfall. This limits the predictability of global carbon and water budgets, and hinders the regional management of naturalresources. Using novel satellite observations and atmospheric trajectory modelling, we unravel the origin and immediate drivers of growing-season precipitation, and the extent to which ecoregions themselves contribute to their own supply of rainfall. Results show that persistent anomalies in growing-season precipitation—and subsequent biomass anomalies—are caused by a complex interplay of land and ocean evaporation, air circulation and local atmospheric stability changes. For regions such as the Kalahari and Australia, the volumes of moisture recycling decline in dry years, providing a positive feedback that intensifies dry conditions. However, recycling ratios increase up to40%, pointing to the crucial role of these regions in generating their own supply of rainfall; transpiration in periods of water stress allows vegetation to partly offset the decrease in regional precipitation. Findings highlight the need to adequately represent vegetation–atmosphere feedbacks in models to predict biomass changes and to simulate the fate of water-limited regions in our warming climate

Regional carbon fluxes and the effect of topography on the variability of atmospheric CO2.

Using a mesoscale atmospheric circulation model, it is shown that relatively modest topography height differences of ∼500 m over 200 km near Zotino (60°N, 89°E) in central Siberia may generate horizontal gradients in CO<inf>2</inf> concentration in the order of 30 ppm. In a case study for 15 and 16 July 1996, when Lloyd et al. (2001) conducted a convective boundary layer budget experiment in the area, we show that advection of these gradients disturbs the relation between diurnal concentration changes in the boundary layer and the surface fluxes. This demonstrates that mesoscale atmospheric heterogeneity may have severe impact on the applicability of methods to derive the regional-scale fluxes from CO<inf>2</inf> concentrations measurements, such as the convective boundary layer budget method or inverse modeling. It is shown that similar mesoscale gradients are likely to occur at many long-term observation stations and tall towers. We use the modeled concentration fields to quantify the horizontal and vertical variability of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In future observation campaigns, mesoscale processes may be best accounted for by measuring horizontal variability over a few hundred kilometers and by attempting to quantify the representation errors as a function of mesoscale conditions. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union

Meten van broeikasgassen in het landschap

Verschillende meetinstrumenten en technieken worden ingezet om de dynamiek van deze uitwisseling in ruimte en tijd in beeld te krijgen. De metingen moeten vertellen wat de netto broeikasgasbalans van het landschap is en hoe deze zal reageren op een veranderend klimaa

Homogenization and polarization of the seasonal water discharge of global rivers in response to climatic and anthropogenic effects

We investigate global trends in seasonal water discharge using data from 5668 hydrological stations in catchments whose total drainage area accounts for 2/3 of the Earth's total land area. Homogenization of water discharge, which occurs when the gap in water discharge between dry and flood seasons shrinks significantly, affects catchments occupying 2/5 of the total land area, and is mainly concentrated in Eurasia and North America. By contrast, polarization of water discharge, associated with widening of the gap in water discharge between dry and flood seasons, occurs in catchments covering 1/6 of the land area, most notably in the Amazon Basin and river basins in West Africa. Considering the major climatic and anthropogenic controlling factors, i.e. precipitation (P), evaporation (E), glacial runoff (G), and dam operations (D), the world's river basins are classified as P, DEP, GEP, and EP types. Contributions from each controlling factor to either the homogenization or polarization of the seasonal water discharge for each type of river have been analyzed. We found that homogenization of discharge is dominated by dam operations in GDEP and DEP river basins (contributing 48% and 64%) and by homogenized precipitation in GEP and EP river basins. Evaporation and precipitation are primary factors behind the polarization of discharge, contributing 56% and 41%. This study provides a basis for a possible decision tool for controlling drought/flood disasters and for assessing and preventing ecological damage in endangered regions

The carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems at country-scale – a European case study

We summed estimates of the carbon balance of forests, grasslands, arable lands and peatlands to obtain country-specific estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance during the 1990s. Forests and grasslands were a net sink for carbon, whereas croplands were carbon sources in all European countries. Hence, countries dominated by arable lands tended to be losing carbon from their terrestrial ecosystems, whereas forest-dominated countries tended to be sequestering carbon. In some countries, draining and extraction of peatlands caused substantial reductions in the net carbon balance. Net terrestrial carbon balances were typically an order of magnitude smaller than the fossil fuel-related carbon emissions. Exceptions to this overall picture were countries where population density and industrialization are small. It is, however, of utmost importance to acknowledge that the typically small net carbon balance represents the small difference between two large but opposing fluxes: uptake by forests and grasslands and losses from arable lands and peatlands. This suggests that relatively small changes in either or both of these large component fluxes could induce large effects on the net total, indicating that mitigation schemes should not be discarded a priori. In the absence of carbon-oriented land management, the current net carbon uptake is bound to decline soon. Protecting it will require actions at three levels; a) maintaining the current sink activity of forests, b) altered agricultural management practices to reduce the emissions from arable soils or turn into carbon sinks and c) protecting current large reservoirs (wetlands and old forests), since carbon is lost more rapidly than sequestered

The seasonal cycle of the greenhouse gas balance of a continental tundra site in the Indigirka lowlands, NE Siberia

International audienceCarbon dioxide and methane fluxes were measured at a tundra site near Chokurdakh, in the lowlands of the Indigirka river in north-east Siberia. This site is one of the few stations on Russian tundra and it is different from most other tundra flux stations in its continentality. A suite of methods was applied to determine the fluxes of NEE, GPP, Reco and methane, including eddy covariance, chambers and leaf cuvettes. Net carbon dioxide fluxes were unusually high, compared with other tundra sites, with NEE=?92 g C m?2 yr?1, which is composed of an Reco=+141 g C m?2 yr?1 and GPP=?232 g C m?2 yr?1. This large carbon dioxide sink may be explained by the continental climate, that is reflected in low winter soil temperatures (?14°C), reducing the respiration rates, and short, relatively warm summers, stimulating high photosynthesis rates. Interannual variability in GPP was dominated by the frequency of light limitation (Rg ?2), whereas Reco depends most directly on soil temperature and time in the growing season, which serves as a proxy of the combined effects of active layer depth, leaf area index, soil moisture and substrate availability. The methane flux, in units of global warming potential, was +28 g C-CO2e m?2 yr?1, so that the greenhouse gas balance was ?64 g C-CO2e m?2 yr?1. Methane fluxes depended only slightly on soil temperature and were highly sensitive to hydrological conditions and vegetation composition